Welcome to the Premier Online Technology Forecasting System

by William E. Halal, PhD, President, TechCast LLC, GWU

Monday, October 16, 2006

Welcome to TechCast. This site contains a wealth of the most authoritative, carefully organized, easily accessible forecasts outlining how the future of science and technology is likely to unfold for your technology planning. We offer analyses of technological trends driving and opposing 50-90 of the most critical technologies in all fields, the most likely year each will go mainstream, our confidence in this forecast, the estimated market potential, frequency distributions of the data, experts comments, technology tracking over time, incisive articles, period commentaries like this, and much more. Our bubble charts analyze this data base to highlight strategic opportunities.

This work is based on the TechCast Delphi technology forecasting method that pools the best available background information and the collective knowledge of leading experts: CEOs of high-tech firms, government officials, working scientists and engineers, academics, consultants, and futurists. We iterate through this process every few months, and by closing the loop, TechCast becomes an “online learning system” leading to “scientific consensus.” We also confirm this work in our technology consulting for corporations and governments. In general, I think it’s fair to say that TechCast offers “The best possible answers to tough questions.” (Please see “About TechCast” for more details)

Our record over the past 15 years shows an average variance of +/- 3 years, and many of our forecasts have “arrived” within this error band. No forecast is perfect, but 3 years is good enough to get decision-makers into the right ballpark. We’ve learned that technological advances, their adoption patterns, and social impacts all follow well-prescribed natural cycles that can be studied and forecast quite accurately. Our constant goal is to develop ever more powerful methods to illuminate this process of technological evolution.

The most striking conclusion from this work is that technological breakthroughs are appearing everywhere. Science and technology are basically knowledge, and increasingly powerful IT systems are accelerating the advance of knowledge as never before. We can now realistically envision hybrid cars that double fuel efficiency and reduce pollution, fuel cells that replace oil with hydrogen, genetic control over the process of life itself, computer power becoming cheap and infinite, mobile communications at lighting speeds, robots serving as helpers and caregivers, and much, much more to come. This Technology Revolution is still at an early stage, but the potential for acquiring knowledge for technological innovation is so vast it is limited only by imagination and will.

Our coverage of emerging technology may change as well as the format of the site. But TechCast will always provide the most accessible, authoritative, and comprehensive forecasts available. This is an historic period of profound technological change, and TechCast intends to guide the way. All technologies, articles, and other information on the home page are free to visitors, although a nominal fee is required to subscribe to the detailed Breakthrough Analyses and other premium information available to members. We cordially invite you to join us.