Featured Technology Articles

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merging galaxies TechCast Accuracy   Our annual analysis of accuracy confirms that the error band of TechCast's forecasts remains about +/- 3 years on average. Results also show a tendency to "lead" actual arrivals due to expert optimistism. Accuracy seems to have improved in recent years with more experts, improved methods, and constant updating of sound background data.

Andromeda The IT Global Revolution - Evolve or Die   One of our experts, Phil Nelson, offers a badly need touch of optimism by noting that major forecasts agree the IT revolution will transform life in the next decades. It may be hard to imagine while doom and gloom are dominant, but the next economic boom could release a burst of collaborative problem-solving, collective energy, and global consciousness.

Sagi Framing Consciousness   John Sagi was one of our first authors with a fine article "Can Computers Think?" He surveys the literature on consciousness to identify what makes up this poorly understood topic now gaining such attention. A graphic illustrates the tentative structure of consciousness, and unanswered questions are presented. A seminal piece you don't want to miss.

biometrics Use of Biometrics   Two GWU graduate students, Vivian Chu and Gayathri Rajendran, provide an incisive survey of who is using biometrics, for what purpose, and the pros and cons. With security needs rising, the field has a bright future.

The Next Next Things   This is a beautifully illustrated full-page article that appeared in the Washington Post. It summarizes the work of TechCast, focusing on forecasts in Space Tourism, Intelligent Cars, Telemedicine, Thought Power, Artificial Intelligence, Smart Robots, Alternative Energy, and Cancer Cure.

CSM logo Business Collaboration Could Transform the Economy   Knowledge on progressive business practices offers an incisive solution to the limitations of markets that caused the 2008 financial meltdown. Redefining corporations into "collaborative enterprises" like Whole Foods, Nucor, and John & Johnson could convert this mess into a bold opportunity to unify left- and right-wing values, resolve today's moral crisis of capitalism, and jumpstart the economy.

Logo The Arlington Institute Alert   John Petersen -- our famous colleague who called the global financial collapse with stunning accuracy months before it hit -- has allowed us to post his assessment of the economic crisis. This is a serious counterbalance to TechCast views, and we are pleased to present it here.

Forecasts of a New Economic Boom in 2015   TechCast data show emerging technology frontiers are likely to lead the world out of global ecession. Green Business, Climate Control, Alternative Energy, E-Commerce, and other sectors are likely to start the next economic upcycle about 2015.

Governing Markets   Bill Halal draws on a career of studying corporate governance to outline how the visible hand of stakeholder collaboration can augment the visible hand of free markets. Examples of progressive management from the leading edge suggest that a "quasi-democratic theory of the firm" seems to be evolving that can create more competitive enterprises that also serve the public welfare more effectively.

Brain The Automation of Thought   TechCast forecasts that artificial intelligence is expected to automate routine human knowledge about 2020. This event is of profound significance because it extends the long advance of automation from farm work, to manufacturing, services, and now even to the automation of thought - moving our attention beyond knowledge to consciousness itself.

Asymtotic curve Accelerating Change   Al Leedahl, one of our TechCast Experts, outlines the logic of accelerating technological change by drawing on the principles of Ray Kurzweil. Leedahl's theme is crucial because the Technology Revolution is poised to speed up relentlessly, driving a social transformation that is much debated today.

The Metaverse: Life in 3D Virtual Environments   This study by Mateo Fernandez outlines how Second Life and other virtual systems are forming a larger form of cyberspace where virtual life takes place. This emerging "Metaverse" will allow people to interact in 3D, fully immersive cyber-reality, extending most aspects of real life through space and time.

When Will Virtual Reality Become A Reality?   Aaron Druck has been fascinated with virtual realty, like most of us, so he conducted a study to forecast its future use. Aaron explores the obstacles to VR in this article. He also presents results of a survey to estimate when it will be commercially available, the applications people favor, and how much they will pay.

Why Do People Reject or Accept Genetically Modified Foods?   Whitney Tull produced this fine study of genetically modified foods, focusing on why some people seem to accept them just fine and others abhor the idea. We think she's discovered why great conflicts often rage over technological issues.

Asimo Attitudes Toward Androids   Technology trends are introducing robots in offices and homes, raising the issue of how we interact with our mechanical brethren. This study of public attitudes toward living with androids offers fascinating forecasts. For instance, the authors find that people prefer female robots.