Issue Analysis

Global Megacrisis Survey

 

 

      With financial and ecological crises threatening the world, the two of us engaged in a spirited email discussion published in World Future Review, June-July 2009. We are both deeply concerned about the multiple, complex, interrelated threats making up what Halal calls the “global crisis of maturity” and we more generally call the “global megacrisis”.  We are now opening up this discussion to learn what others think.

 

      This survey summarizes our differing views, and then asks you to generally evaluate the severity of the global megacrisis and likelihood of four alternative scenarios. No one can be certain about much in this situation, but we ask you to use your best judgment. To illustrate, Marien assigns the probabilities of the four scenarios as 25, 55, 20, and <1% respectively, while Halal rates them 10, 25, 60, and 5%.

 

      We plan to publish the results and offer an analysis of what they mean. This is not a random sample, of course, but we hope you find it a provocative and interesting learning experience. Please respond by clicking on "Take Survey" after the results below. Or you can e-mail answers and lengthier comments to [email protected] and [email protected]. It should take about 10 minutes.  Thanks for participating.

     

                                                   William Halal, Prof Emeritus, GWU; President, TechCast LLC

                                                   Michael Marien, Former Editor, Future Survey, World Future Society

 

 

 

HALAL'S ARGUMENT: The World is Entering an Advanced Stage of Evolution

 

My recent book, Technology's Promise, concludes that high-tech globalization is causing a  “global crisis of maturity” marked by unprecedented transition points in climate change, environment, energy, economic systems, terrorism, armed conflict, and other threats to civilization. A second major conclusion is that the relentless advance of information technology (IT) that drives globalization is also producing a resolution of this crisis. This is a transition to an advanced stage of civilization powered by advanced technologies, global systems, and mounting knowledge.

 

Forecasts from the TechCast Project (www.TechCast.org) suggest this is likely in about 10 years +/- 3 years. Worldwide e-commerce is likely to take off in about 5 years to form a rudimentary version of the "global brain" futurists have long anticipated. About 2020 or so, we are likely to see 2nd-generation computing (optical, nano, bio, and quantum) and artificial intelligence (AI) good enough to automate routine knowledge.  Kurzweil's extrapolation of computer power offers strong evidence, as well as the TechCast data. 

 

As AI automates routine thought (GPS navigation systems, speech recognition, robotics, the intelligent web, etc.), attention is moving beyond knowledge to focus on values, beliefs, ideology, vision, and other higher levels of thought out of sheer necessity. This constitutes the next logical phase in the progression of automation from agriculture, to manufacturing, to services, to knowledge, and now to consciousness.

 

The central role of IT/AI is a game changer because it shifts the relationship between humans and machines. Contrary to the assertion that AI will surpass people, AI liberates us from mental drudgery and releases the unique human capability for higher consciousness -- at the same time that the world is heading toward unprecedented challenges. This is hardy a coincidence but rather the playing out of historic forces in the natural life cycle of evolution. Sure, there will be lots of confusion and crazy behavior because the world is struggling to take responsibility for its future or suffer enormous consequences. But Pollster John Zogby’s data show a “fundamental reorientation of the American character: away from wanton consumption and toward a new global citizenry in an age of limited resources.”

 

Concerted action could resolve the megacrisis anytime, but events are likely to culminate about 2020 when we expect IT/AI to mature and the threats to reach intolerable levels as global GDP almost doubles. Yes, the situation looks bleak, but that’s always true before a major turning point. The rise of consciousness can be seen even now in the way the economic crisis has provoked a widespread awareness of the need to alter world systems in finance, energy, and climate control.

 

It's not possible to know much about this coming “Age of Consciousness/Awareness” any more than we would have guessed that the Information Age would have us staring into PCs half of the day. I suspect we will use what I call "technologies of consciousness" (neuro-tech brain enhancements, virtual reality and simulations, strategic planning, collaboration, conflict resolution, meditation and prayer, etc.) to see us through the crisis of maturity. (see Ch. 9 of Technology's Promise)

 

I certainly agree the obstacles are massive, but it is not “wishful thinking” to see that historic forces are likely to alter the present situation in ways that may surprise us, much like the collapse of Communism. Of course there is a serious chance we will suffer the “loss of civilization” or “a high-tech dark age.” But for those who are around at 2020, I’m pretty sure we will find that the crisis of maturity has been largely resolved and that life continues to go on fairly well.

  

MARIEN'S ARGUMENT:  Ignorance, Infoglut, Indecision, and Inadequacy

 

We agree on a global megacrisis, as the world struggles through The Great Recession of 2008-20??, caused by failure to heed many Cassandras.  We also agree than an IT/AI explosion is under way, as well as other technology revolutions ahead, as nicely summarized by Bill’s TechCast project.  Will IT/AI make things better?  It is indeed “a game changer,” but it will change many games—for good and ill.    Will IT/AI bring convergence of thinking about important global issues and move attention to “higher levels of consciousness”?  Or is it just as likely to cause further infoglut and fragmentation, degraded consciousness, indecision, and half-baked inadequate action?  Based on the first decade or so of the Internet and vastly expanded information abundance of all sorts, I see no reason for unfettered optimism, such as Bill’s Chapter 9 on a likely “Age of Consciousness” c. 2020-2030, which is simply wishful thinking.

 

Updating my early background in macro-systems thinking, I recently published an essay sub-titled “Our Era of Mal-Adaptive, Non-Adaptive, and Semi-Adaptive Systems” (World Future Review, 1:2, April-May 2009, pp5-13), which provoked this exchange.  Unlike the conventional wisdom of “complex adaptive systems” borrowed from the world of natural sciences, I argued that our increasingly complex social systems are adapting in the wrong direction, not adapting at all, or only partly adapting, which could well result in the paradox of “improvement and growing inadequacy.”

 

Certainly there is more consciousness about global issues and some actions are being taken to improve global governance.  There is growing awareness of global warming and the need to accelerate the energy transition.  The “greening” of individuals, communities, businesses, and governments is underway in many places, and there is a veritable gold rush to develop a wide variety of new energy technologies (e.g., Exxon Mobil’s recent investment of $600 million to produce liquid fuels from algae).  And yet the most recent findings of climate experts are far more dire than the official 2007 IPCC report—thus, “improvement and growing inadequacy” seems likely.

 

The biggest blindspot in the IT/AI vision has to do with governance.  In the “Rise to Maturity” scenario, governments and corporations do the right thing--and are supported by the public.  Even in the more likely “Muddling Up” scenario, “increasing knowledge [leads to] wider understanding” and “public attitudes shift enough to favor the needed changes.”  Desirable, but not likely, as huge fiscal deficits, necessarily run up by many governments, fuel reactionary fears that we are headed toward fiscal ruin, evil socialism and unwelcome global government.

 

Despite the super-abundance of information, there is no evidence that the American public is better informed about current affairs than in the past, in what James Bovard calls our “Attention Deficit Democracy.”  Newspapers and magazines are closing down or shrinking their coverage of national and global issues.  Financially-stressed schools and colleges are still deficient in civic education, let alone serious futures education.    We may still see some shift to enlightened views, but, more likely than not, much too little too late.  And it may well be offset by reality-challenged backlash stoked by fear.

 

This is not “doom and gloom,” but mainstream social science thinking, synthesizing hundreds of recent books on environmental issues, governance, IT impacts, and education.  I hope we can return to an undisputed path of evolutionary progress, but it will require a major re-structuring of industrial-era knowledge and education/learning.  Technologies of consciousness, alone, won’t come close to what we need.

  


     ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

 

DECLINE TO DISASTER The world fails to react with disastrous consequences. Indecision reigns due to too many choices, too many entrenched interest groups, and too few resources to make needed changes.  Huge government deficits persist, leading to diminished public services and an inability to make crucial transition investments. Governments are also unable to reform financial systems, curb global warming, or solve the energy problem, while corporations remain focused on profit. Technological advances are shelved or fail to help. Global warming becomes severe, with extreme weather events and sea level rise leading to massive migrations and crop losses. The world sinks into economic depression, crippling energy shortages, collapse of large ecological systems, much destruction of life, rampant war, crime, and corruption. Worldwide pandemics, nuclear attacks, bioterrorism, cyberattacks, and/or crashes of the Worldwide Web may add to the decline. Many parts of the world suffer the loss of functioning civilization

 

MUDDLING DOWN  Half-way, inadequate actions cause civilization to enter a high-tech dark age. Political stalemates, lack of resources, and ignorance about the complexity of the problem result in only modest changes in financial systems, governance, energy, and education.  The promise of new technologies is only partly met, while pollution and population pressures continue.  Global warming and extreme weather increase. Recovery from the Great Recession is slow and uneven, and the number of failed states rises. Regional wars and terrorist attacks increase. Despite claims of progress by political and corporate leaders, the quality of life declines for most people.  These strains on the capacity of the planet to support global industrialization lead to more people living in poverty and despair, and often reacting violently.

  

MUDDLING UP  Governments and corporations act slowly, but increasing knowledge and mounting threats spur continued efforts. Far more sophisticated IT and AI provide more powerful technical capabilities, a wider understanding of the problems, and an appreciation of the fundamental need to promote sustainability. The sense of urgency builds as problems increase, so public attitudes shift enough to favor needed changes, and reasonably good leadership is able to provide guidance. There are minor disasters along the way but little that is catastrophic. A rudimentary but functioning global order emerges to manage this advanced society in time to avert widespread disaster, albeit with an increasing level of the normal problems in any large social system.

 

RISE TO MATURITY The transition to a new global order is made smoothly and quickly. There is a rapidly growing realization that the Earth is a precious living system requiring human care. Governments and corporations react wisely and with determination, and they are supported by the majority of people, so the world surpasses the UN Millennium Development Goals of halving poverty by 2015, and the Earth approaches sustainability. Energy shortages, climate change, and global conflict are largely avoided. The media, schools, and colleges offer useful knowledge and intelligent guidance, and widespread, in-depth debates illuminate and resolve crucial issues. The world enters global maturity rather easily and unscathed. 

 


Halal Bibliography
 
John Petersen, “A New End, A New Beginning,” in Innovation and Complexity in a Complex World, (Bethesda: World Future Society, 2009) 
 

Jerome Glenn et al, “The Millennium Project,” in Innovation and Complexity Op Cit.

William E. Halal, Technology’s Promise (London: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2008) 

William E. Halal, “The Life Cycle of Evolution,“ Futures Research Quarterly  (2004) Vol 9, No. 1

 

John Zogby, The Way We'll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream (New York: Random House, 2008)

Jamais Cascio, “Get Smarter,” The Atlantic (July-August 2009)

Global Economic Prospects: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization (World Bank, 2009) 

 
 Marien Bibliography

Nicholas Carr, The Big Switch: Rewiring the World from Edison to Google (W. W. Norton, 2008).  Offers a well-informed critique of Internet optimists.

 

Michael Marien, Democracy in the 21st Century: Forward or Backward? (Future Survey Mini-Guide #3, Feb 2008).  A broad survey of the problems of democracy and today’s ill-informed citizens.

 

Martin Rees, Our Final Century: The 50/50 Threat to Humanity’s Survival (Basic Books, 2003).  The UK Royal Astronomer and Cambridge professor discusses a broad range of sci/tech risks.

 

Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Chose to Fail or Succeed (Penguin, 2005).  A very readable bestseller for more than six months, by a UCLA geography professor, suggesting that “it could happen here.”

 

 

Michael C. MacCracken et al. (eds), Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change: Exploring the Real Risks (Earthscan, Feb 2008).  Explains why climate change may well be more severe than projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change.

 

Kurt M. Campbell (ed), Climatic Cataclysm: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications (Brookings Institution Press, July 2008).  Provides three very scary scenarios.

 

Joseph J. Romm, Hell and High Water (Morrow, March 2007).  Three more very scary scenarios of hellish global warming and rising sea levels.

 


Survey Results
1 How severe is the potential threat posed by the Global Megacrisis?
Please select the one answer that best reflects your judgment
 RESULTS
% N
Catastrophic. Could be the end of civilization for many if not all.
19
12
Severe. Threatens major declines in central aspects of life
62
39
Bad. Serious challenges that are likely to be met in time.
13
8
Overblown. Exaggerated problems that technology and markets will handle
5
3
Don’t Know. Too murky and can’t even make a guess
2
1
2 What is the probability that the DECLINE TO DISASTER scenario will occur?*
Please enter a probability from 0 to 100. Be sure probabilities for all scenarios total 100%.
 RESULTS
Mean - 25
N - 63
SD - 20%
3 If the DECLINE TO DISASTER scenario were to occur, when do you think it is likely?*
Please enter a year from 2000 to 2050.
 RESULTS
Mean - 2030
N - 63
SD - 11%
4 What is the probability that the MUDDLING DOWN scenario will occur?*
Please enter a probability from 0 to 100. Be sure probabilities for all scenarios total 100%.
 RESULTS
Mean - 38
N - 63
SD - 17%
5 If the MUDDLING DOWN scenario were to occur, when is it likely?*
Please enter a year from 2000 to 2050
 RESULTS
Mean - 2024
N - 63
SD - 11%
6 What is the probability that the MUDDLING UP scenario will occur?*
Please enter a probability from 0 to 100. Be sure probabilities for all scenarios total 100%.
 RESULTS
Mean - 30
N - 63
SD - 15%
7 If the MUDDLING UP scenario were to occur, when is it likely?*
Please enter a year from 2000 to 2050.
 RESULTS
Mean - 2027
N - 63
SD - 11%
8 What is the probability that the RISE TO MATURITY scenario will occur?*
Please enter a probability from 0 to 100. Be sure probabilities for all scenarios total 100%.
 RESULTS
Mean - 15
N - 63
SD - 18%
9 If the RISE TO MATURITY scenario were to occur, when is it likely*
Please enter a year from 2000 to 2050.
 RESULTS
Mean - 2033
N - 63
SD - 14%
10 Please offer your general thoughts about the megacrisis, the two arguments, the 4 scenarios, etc.
 RESULTS
This is a great study
Nice scenarios
We have already crossed over 3 of the 9 global boundaries - the other 6 are under threat.
Well posed and valid. The crisis is real. Outcome is uncertain.
no comment
Reforms in governace are more important for maturation than technology, but technology can help.
Muddling is the repetitive MO (Modus Operandi) of the worlds matrix of societies and cultures.
I think we are seeing the emergence of an unscientific 'crisis' mentality on global issues,
Humanity is long on skill (IT/AI) but short on wisdom (ability to govern and decise wisely)
Nicely set out, but the "nevironmentalist" question below is hard to answer - speaking as one who f.
Nations are not relevant, once again. We're back into the Middle Ages, although now computerized.
We are at a bifurcation point with more down potential than up. The economic meltdown woke people
I think muddling down has already begun. Technology is not going to provide some magic answer.
While history tells us that "there is always a megacrisis," something intangible haunts our present.
challenging; complex; sleep-robbing.
I don't see these as distinct scenarios, rather a possible progression of states between 2010 & 2050
it is rather hard to put down a specific year for things which are here described as processes.
It doesn't fit in this box...
Interesting. Care should be taken in interpreting survey results due to limiting test methodology
Well differentiated scenarios. Immature governance systems and political lag seem drivers of crisis
Interesting alternatives, but tech doesn't solve problems, and poor tech use can exacerbate issues
The key to everything is the moral response from the haves to the have nots
Valid scenerios and process. The wisdom of the informed crowd.
Seems inevitable that we are going to decline, but, without a crystal ball, hard to say how and whe
Perhaps in disaster lies spiritual redemption.
After initial chaos, we shall learn, grow and mature.
most likely a bad outcome in the short term
it's very scary...hopefully things will get better before they get worse in order to save our econom
Our current financail stabity issues are real, we need to ge more fiscal resposive now.
A matter of human maturity/awakening, unpredictable but possible
Not sure there is enough evidence to support the warming theory.
Well-framed
"Boom and bust" cycles will be severe
Money is the root of all Evil, but it's hard to buy anything without it ...
predicting complex tool
We're stuck with quite a bit of global warming just due to the excess CO2 already in the atmosphere.
Our species has a proven capacity to survive, albeit usually by muddling up.
Outcomes of 1st 3 scenarios similar. Consider transformational change (eg government to governance).
IT is powered thus far by electricity which is mostly delivered through fuels. No fuel no IT ??
We are already muddling down - BP disater in Gulf, Fukushima. Soon enough we'll crash.
Interesting propositions!
They seem reasonable scenarios
Arguments: Accept Halal's point of view. a combination of Severe and Bad is most likely
I am not sure there is even a crisis
11 What country do you live in?*
Enter the name of the country.
 RESULTS
USA
UK
Australia
United States
USA
USA
United States
Australia
South Africa
UK
USA
Canada
Venezuela
US
Australia
United States
United States
USA
P.R.China
Colombia
Australia
Finland
Netherlands
Germany
Australia
New Zealand
United Kingdom
Finland
United States
Finland
New Zealand
U.S.A.
USA
USA
USA
mexico
usa
New Zealand
USA
Australia
Australia
US
Luxembourg
USA
USA
Canada
USA
USA
Canada
Argentina
USA
USA
USA
Slovakia
United States
USA
South Africa
England
USA
USA
usa
South Africa
america
12 What is your expertise on this issue?*
Choose one answer
 RESULTS
% N
Expert
25
16
Somewhat of an expert
33
21
Slight expertise
16
10
No expertise
25
16
13 Are you an environmentalist in thought or practice?*
Choose one answer
 RESULTS
% N
Strongly green
21
13
Largely green
46
29
Somewhat green
29
18
No way
5
3
14 What is your major group affiliation.*
Choose all that apply
 RESULTS
% N
World Future Society
21
17
World Future Society Professional
7
6
WFSF
10
8
TechCast Project
11
9
APF
4
3
Other or none.
47
38
15 Your age*
 RESULTS
Mean - 52
N - 63
SD - 14%
16 Your gender please?*
 RESULTS
% N
Male
68
43
Female
32
20

Public Comments
(Edited and displayed in 1-2 days)

Lewis Herlitz (09/28/2010)
I support the views of B. Davies (04/17/2010)

Lester Ingber (04/26/2010)
Lobbyists control most issues of importance to economies. The largest lobbyists have gotten stronger, not weaker, since this global crisis. I see a call/hope for grass roots calls for changes in politics, not any reason for optimism that we somehow will "evolve" as societies.

B. Davies (04/17/2010)
The consolidation of wealth by individuals and countries, combined with the rapid obsolesence of the factors of production (particularly personal skills) which is being caused by rapid technological advance, is going to result in wide-spread economic disparity. These economic changes will result in wide-spread cultural stress, particularly in the world's democracies. Our systems of governance will likely not be able to adapt as rapidly as is needed, to remediate these inequities, because of the intentionally slow pace at which legal systems change, and will be widely challenged; their response will be to attempt to slow-down the pace of change, while they struggle to find more-adaptive systems of governance. I don't think IT/AI will be helping raise conciousness by 2020 -- it will be hard-pressed to fullfill the more pressing issue of matching displaced workers to new jobs and training them for it, and in supporting the increasingly complex negotiations and logistics associated with allocating, delivering, and securing power supplies, food & water, medicine, housing, and jobs. For these reasons, I expect the political leadership of the world's super-powers will increasingly focus on domestic issues;international efforts will be driven by pragmatic self-interest, rather than by sense of responsibility for the less fortunate. Having said that, I believe it is *possible* for the cultural leadership of the world (religion, education, legal systems, governance) to undertake the analysis and reformulation of their respective systems over the next 20 years, to move us to a mindset which would enable us to rise to maturity. Therefore, in the near term, IT/AI should seek to support cultural change by supporting the analysis of various cultural models, and facilitating the communication and negotiation of their conceptualization to the world's population. For example: what is the best definition of reproductive rights and responsibilities, in an over-populated world which is capable of doing genetic engineering? How should health-care be rationed? What limits should be placed on intellectual property rights and technology licensing, in the interests of world peace and sustainability? Should we allow individuals to select the political system which they will live under (eg, capitalism, communism, theocracy), and could a single city support multiple political systems co-existing side-by-side?

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