Our forecast that “Wireless systems like WiFi, WiMax, and smart phones are used by 30% of people to access the Internet” is estimated to have arrived in 2010. Several of our Selected Adoption and Forecast Data point to this conclusion:
• Virtually All new laptops are now equipped for wireless.
• Wireless desktop computer peripherals are now so prevalent that they are replacing most hard-wired versions.
• Many Corporations have recently begun going totally wireless.
• Globally, more than 20% of mobile phones are smart and able to use wireless Internet and 30% adoption is estimated soon.
These data are not precisely conclusive, which illustrates the challenge of defining when a forecast actually arrives. In such cases we rely ultimately on the judgment of our experts, and 78 of them reached a consensus that confirms the 2010 date with 83% confidence. They also estimate the potential global market to be on the order of $2 trillion/year.
TechCast makes a point of noting these arrivals in order to validate our forecasts. Several years ago we were forecasting this technology would reach 30% adoption at 2007-2011, averaging 2009. This may have been a bit optimistic in hindsight, but pretty good really. It's within our error range of +/- 3 years, and we are improving the system constantly.
The Wireless forecast will remain posted for a few months to illustrate our process for determining when a forecast arrives and to allow our clients to use the data. We will also continue tracking advancements in wireless technology under the Broadband, Smart Phone, and Global Access forecasts. Other forecasts that have recently arrived include B2B – 2010 and Entertainment – 2010.
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